Cliff Wachtel Daily Oil Analysis – September 28, 2010
Posted on 28 September 2010 by CliffWachtel
Oil fell towards $76 on Tuesday, tracking Asian equities lower on lingering concerns about euro-zone debt, which also boosted the dollar. U.S. crude for delivery in November fell 25 cents to $76.27 a barrel at 0054 GMT, while ICE Brent slid 35 cents to $78.22.
U.S. crude oil stockpiles probably fell by 400,000 barrels last week on lower imports as seasonal refinery maintenance slowed demand, a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday, ahead of weekly inventory reports Tuesday and Wednesday. Distillate stocks and gasoline supplies may have gained, by 300,000 barrels and 700,000 barrels respectively, with demand seen weak and inventory movements hewing close to seasonal norms, the poll for the week to Sept. 24 showed.
Industry statistics will be published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday at 2030 GMT, followed by government data on inventories and demand front the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday at 1430 GMT. Oil fell in New York, snapping four days of gains, as the dollar strengthened against the euro and analysts forecast an increase in U.S. gasoline supplies, signaling demand recovery in the largest crude user may falter.
Futures slipped as U.S. equities dropped and the euro weakened from a five-month high against the dollar after renewed signs of debt problems at European banks and countries such as Ireland and Portugal. An U.S. Energy Department report tomorrow may show gasoline stockpiles climbed to the highest level in six months.
The November contract lost as much as 40 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $76.12 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $76.26 at 10:54 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday it added 3 cents to settle at $76.52. Prices are down 4 percent this year. Oil prices may decline based on technical factors used by traders to judge price movements. Crude closed only 3 cents higher from its open, creating what is known as a doji formation, which uses candle charts to track levels and indicate a reversal in price direction.
Tags | demand, industry statistics, stockpiles



